In case you missed it, this is the final month of The Chalkboard. October 31st, the Substack will be closed. For more information, click here! This will probably be the last Sunday night post, as the site winds down.
For likely the final time at The Chalkboard, let’s take a look at three markets that are in motion because of the events of this weekend.
NFL Most Valuable Player. Bills QB Josh Allen entered the week as the favorite for the award, following his team’s resounding victory over Miami last Sunday. But then the London game happened. Allen and the Bills lost to the Jaguars Sunday morning, and the team currently sits at 3-2. Team success is an extremely important part of the MVP award, and you have a handful of teams with better records at the moment. The Bills do play the Giants, Patriots and Buccaneers the next three weeks, so this could just be a blip on the radar. But it’s at least very much in doubt who the most likely player to win the award is. Patrick Mahomes led the Chiefs to a win over Minnesota in which Travis Kelce got hurt, but his statistical profile isn’t great, at least not yet. Jalen Hurts hasn’t lost yet, which is exactly how his candidacy grew last year. Lamar Jackson had a rough game against Pittsburgh. Justin Herbert had the week off. Joe Burrow (don’t laugh) had a great game at Arizona. The favorite to me, even by the slimmest of margins right now, is probably Tua Tagovailoa of the Dolphins. Same record as Mahomes, better stats, no voter fatigue for those who don’t want to write Mahomes name 1st after he won last year with near-record-setting numbers. The additional crazy part here is what to do with the two San Francisco 49ers players with MVP candidacies — Brock Purdy and Christian McCaffrey — who are both excellent and may be playing for a team that’s about to have a 14 or 15-win season (or better). They’re playing Dallas right now, so it’s all subject to change, but in terms of either player’s candidacy, there are a couple issues. This is typically a very QB-dominant award, and that hurts McCaffrey (who can get Offensive Player of the Year for his performance instead). And Purdy and McCaffrey actually hurt each other being on the same team, syphoning votes from each other. Also, coach Kyle Shanahan probably gets all the credit for ALL of this happening, and if the team has a great season, Coach of the Year may be the most likely award the team receives (and they may get snubbed from all the others). I’d probably have Tua ahead of Mahomes right now, even though I know the market has them flipped. At least a half-dozen other players (maybe about a half-dozen exactly) can still win.
The AFC North. Steelers beat Ravens. Browns take the week off after getting shellacked. Bengals win. And now…a mess. Steelers 3-2, Ravens 3-2, Browns 2-2, Bengals 2-3. FanDuel’s current AFC North market: Ravens +110, Browns +270, Steelers +460, Bengals +500. Feels like any of the four can win and we shouldn’t be surprised. The Browns seem optimistic Deshaun Watson’s shoulder injury won’t be a long-term thing, but there hasn’t been a legitimate update since the team was off this week. That’s the first big thing that can impact this market going forward. Also, despite their long price, the Steelers are the only team that’s 2-0 in the division so far. Honestly, I’d bet the two longest prices and let the chips fall where they may. The Bengals and Ravens are both about a field-goal favorite in their next game, while the Steelers have the week off and the Browns will host the 49ers. None of the four teams is playing a game where they seem even remotely certain of winning, so expect more drastic movement again next week in this market.
The Heisman Trophy. Caleb Williams entered the week as the favorite, and he still is…sort of. Williams and USC survived against Arizona to stay undefeated, which is good. Williams’ stats were the worst he’s had in any this game this season, though. And USC’s defense has given people the impression they are going to drop a couple games soon, maybe starting this weekend to Notre Dame. For that reason, Michael Penix of Washington has passed Williams as the favorite in the market, ahead of Washington’s game next weekend against Oregon. Penix vs. Bo Nix in that game, with the winner probably becoming the betting favorite. But all these Pac-12 quarterbacks are sort-of sucking up the oxygen currently, both in the betting market, and nationally. And as they start taking losses, which seems more likely as the schedule gets more difficult, you wonder if the spotlight ends up coming back across the country a little more than it is now in terms of the award. Dillon Gabriel of Oklahoma made a big statement in the team’s win over Texas, and has a great statistical profile (18 touchdowns to 2 interceptions, great QBR), but he sits a very distant 4th in terms of odds most places to win. Given the fact Oklahoma will be favored in their remaining 6 games in the regular season, that seems a little crazy to me. In addition to Gabriel and his case, the biggest games of the year will be the cross-division match-ups between Michigan, Penn State, and Ohio State. Could a contender emerge from one of those teams, depending on if one sweeps the other two? The most likely would be Drew Allar and JJ McCarthy. It’s a long ways away, but the eyes of the sport will be on the Big Ten East starting in a couple weeks. It’s easy to think the Pac-12 has the award locked down right now, but things change so quickly in the sport. Caleb Williams wasn’t going to win last year, C.J. Stroud was. And then in a couple weeks, it all flipped. Same thing can happen again, of course.
Ken you are the absolute G.O.A.T. Prop King killed the props today! Thank you/Tyler for giving out Luke List in golf & for the Underdog ML parlay you gave out on this morning’s show!
Are you sure you want to shut down the sub stack?! I’d still pay for a membership even if you wrote a post once a month! I’m sure others would agree! We definitely still understand/support your decision.
Your work is second to none. I echo JerekDeter, we all love you!
Thank you, Sir!
Have truly helped further flesh out our thought processes.
We love you, Ken!