This is the continuation of a summer-long series about NFL and CFB win total concepts. Part 1, with a simple NFL exercise to work on, can be found here.
This time of year is when the buzz really starts. Middle of the summer. Media days for the conferences. The Phil Steele guide came out. Calendar getting close to August. We won’t reach fever pitch for a month or so, but you start to hear a few things. Teams everyone thinks might be really good. This team can put it all together. This team has a ton of talent. This team lost too much. Don’t count out this coach.
This year, you can probably think of a few takes that fit this description already. First and foremost, a lot of people have a strong opinion about what Deion Sanders will do at Colorado with a brand new team made up almost entirely of transfer portal additions. The Buffaloes’ win total is 3.5. A lot of people are very high on Texas this year, in the Longhorns final season in the Big 12 before moving to the SEC with Oklahoma next year. Many people are wondering if Alabama will return to dominance this year, or whether last season’s struggles signal the end of the era when the Tide were the prohibitive annual favorite to win it all.
There’s just a lot of energy and conversation around college football right now, which is fun, and it’s just starting. It’s exciting that we are on the precipice of a new season. But while all of these narratives are swirling, I thought it would be fun to isolate a concept that has helped me make a lot of valuable win total bets through the years.